Nope.
The timing is all wrong. The cycles are pretty regular. We had a warming Milankovic cycle about 12,000 years ago, it got us out of the last Ice Age. Since then we (until recently) were in the slow cooling that follows a warming cycle. The next warming cycle isn’t due for 80,000-90,000 years.
Also, the Milankovic cycles aren’t some magic. They cause an increase in solar radiation that would be EASILY detectable. But measured solar radiation shows the slow decline related to the slow cooling mentioned above.
This graph shows the slow decline in temperature, after the last Ice Age, and before global warming.
http://www.globalwarmingart.com/images/b/bb/Holocene_Temperature_Variations_Rev.png
Nope.
The timing is all wrong. The cycles are pretty regular. We had a warming Milankovic cycle about 12,000 years ago, it got us out of the last Ice Age. Since then we (until recently) were in the slow cooling that follows a warming cycle. The next warming cycle isn’t due for 80,000-90,000 years.
Also, the Milankovic cycles aren’t some magic. They cause an increase in solar radiation that would be EASILY detectable. But measured solar radiation shows the slow decline related to the slow cooling mentioned above.
This graph shows the slow decline in temperature, after the last Ice Age, and before global warming.
http://www.globalwarmingart.com/images/b/bb/Holocene_Temperature_Variations_Rev.png
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sorry bob when combined with solar cycles they are the climate drivers
not the cooked data you worship from your alarmist priests
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The Milankovitch cycles trigger transitions between ice ages and interglacial periods. They are amplified by various feedbacks like increasing atmospheric CO2. So yes, they partially explain some periods of warming.
However, according to these cycles, the planet should be very gradually cooling right now. Which it was for about 8,000 years until 100 years ago. So they don’t explain the current global warming. Quite the opposite.
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http://www.ecohuddle.com/wiki/global-warming-and-climate-change-causes
Nope. As others have said, we were in a natural long term cooling period due to Milankovitch Cycles. Greenhouse gases have overwhelmed that.
To Jim Z — No, there is no assumption that the short term warming is related to the Milankovitch cycles. There is no possible way. We are agreed. The warming is too rapid to be related to anything natural. And that’s the point. The warming is not related to the Milankovitch cycles and is therefore not related "coming out of the little ice age". There is no known natural reason for the warming: it is not Milankovitch, not ice ages, not changes in the sun.
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Yes!
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They explain long term trends. Shorter term trends are caused by a myriad of other factors. Bacheous is incorrect if he assumes that short term trends such as that related to warming since the Little Ice Age for the last 300 years, is related to to Milankovitch cycles. Perhaps the general cooling for the last 6000 years is but that isn’t relavant to the more recent cooling and warming IMO.
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Yes. It’s that and sunspots.
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These cycles tend to be very long term. The current situation is different. Atmospheric gases can and do retard heat transmission….CO2, methane and water vapor. CO2 occurs naturally and it’s natural formation and distribution is measurable. Most methane is currently locked up in frozen deep sea methane ice and in tundra. Warming will release it and add to the problem. Man made CO2 is a different story than ‘natural CO2 and it can be measured by the industrial odds and ends that accompany it in deeply bored ice cores. Ice cores show that before the industrial revolution of the early 1800 there was very little industrial soot and going back even further there was none. So we can tell what part of the CO2 spectrum is man made and what part is ‘natural’. Today a significant amount of CO2 is man made and the data shows that. Currently our CO2 load stands at 386ppm….before the industrial revolution it stood at 284ppm, an increase of only 4ppm in 10,000 years as shown in ice core samples. At 400ppm the greenhouse effect is strong enough to stop a significant amount of IR radiation from escaping into the night sky so there’s no scientific reason for heating NOT to occur. The amount of man created CO2 increases about 12 to 15ppm per decade….this brings us perilously close to the the 400ppm mark. One can argue with some of the data collected, and even argue with the effects so far, but nobody can argue with scientifically proven heat physics. This is serious business. I think some of the deniers may be trying to prevent a world wide panic by playing down this aspect of the situation. Maybe that’s a good thing. A better thing would be to stop adding CO2 to our paper thin atmosphere.
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Bottom line is that Milankovitch Cycles were never meant to predict warming or cooling trends on the scale that everyone in these forums seem to think they were. Prior to Global Warming hysteria, everyone in the scientific community disregarded Milankovitch for this very reason. People just didn’t care!
Once Warmers thought they could build a case that the Milankovitch was a useful tool to sell Global Warming, then Milankovitch became a weapon in the AGW arsenal.
Look closely at the duration of the cycles and their variability and you will see that their precision is + or – several thousand years.
Transgressive marine cycles in the geological record tend to be serrate in nature, but have time spands that last at a minimum 5 million years and some last 30 million years. Trying to micromanage thermal cyclicity on the scale of 12,000 years is a horrible horrible joke!
The "peaks" alone in the historical Milankovitch exceed 20,500 years in duration and can be as long as 50,0000 years in duration. Additionally, there is an obvious rythm at 400,000 years (check the theory section, that results in a protracted warming cycle despite a n otherwise "cooling" cycle. Check out the precession and obliquity at today…400M years and 800M years and see what happens to warming.
What a bunch of BS…look at the actual data…measure it with a darn ruler or dividers!!!
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http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/File:Milankovitch_Variations.png
Global warming or cooling is directly caused by activity cycles of the sun which cause sun spots. Until we discover what causes the sun to vary its activity levels and what causes the sunspots we will never know what causes our climate variability. We do know for sure that when sunspot activity is high we have warm climate periods and when the sunspot activity is weak we have ice ages. This has been clearly identified by more than 3,000 years of scientific observation by at least 4 cultural groups. The idea that human activity does this is just another silly fundamentalist religion like those that brought us the inquisitions of the middle ages. I prefer science to religion, but liberal minds are always trying to take control of the worlds governments through new fundamentalist religions like AGW.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Galileo_Galilei
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Peer_review
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Scientific_method
http://www.examiner.com/x-4648-Atlanta-Weather-Examiner~y2009m6d21-Sun-spot-cycle-impacting-global-warming-and-cooling
http://docinthemachine.com/2007/02/15/flawedpeers/
http://www.geocraft.com/WVFossils/ice_ages.html
http://www.godlikeproductions.com/forum1/message307338/pg1
http://m.climaterealists.com/index.php?id=2516
http://minnesotansforglobalwarming.com/m4gw/2009/01/earth-on-the-brink-of-an-ice-age.html
http://swampie.wordpress.com/2009/01/11/what-the-vostok-ice-core-data-says-about-global-warming-and-more-importantly-cooling/
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